"When will the COVID-19 end?"
"What about the remedy for the new coronavirus?"
"How far has the COVID-19 vaccine progressed?"
I've always been wondering, so I've been working hard to find out!
However, it was so difficult that I could fall asleep several times while reading it,
so I will summarize it as easily as possible ...!
First and foremost,
◆when will this new coronavirus infection end?◆
The basic idea is them.
(1) Since people can't stop coming and going,
global convergence by "containment" cannot be ralized.
(2) There is no way to converge without getting "collective immunity".
(* Nikkei Biotech)
By the way, "collective immunity" is a method of setting
"how many new infections one infected person
has (= basic reproduction number)" to 1 or less."
(↑ The point is that if 10 infected people infect only 9 people,
the number of new infected people will decrease by 1 person,
because the number of people with immunity will decrease the number of people
who will be infected with the virus.
So, try to make 10 → 9 → 7 → 5 → 3 → 1 → 0)
It is natural to gradually reduce the number of infected people to make it converge,
but how many people have to get immunity is that
if the "basic reproduction number" of the COVID-19 is 2.5
(One infected person transfers to 2,5 people),
60% of the total population seems to have to be immune.
And to have immunity
(1) Infection and cure
(2) Strike a vaccine (It feels like a flu shot)
There are two methods, but (1) is dangerous.
By the way, it is said that it takes 3 to 5 years (!) If you use the method of (1) infection and cure.
Vaccine = If you get a vaccination,
you will less likely to get the virus, which is really important.
By the way, the rumored "Abigan" is a "medicine."
Avigan = medhicine after becoming new coronavirus (COVID-19) infection
Vaccine = to prevent new coronavirus infections in the first place
The main premise is around that.
◆What is the current status of therapeutic drug development
and vaccine development?◆
is a very interesting place for everyone,right?
When we tried to look it up ourselves, a lot of mysterious words came out...
It's called in japansese "Chinpankanpun"... lol
As of April 20, there are a total of 1300 (!) Clinical trials involving vaccines, therapeutic agents, and testing technologies
related to the new coronavirus (COVID-19) in the world.
I will summarize the current situation from now on.
Two are famous.
It is a therapeutic drug that the government is talking about in Japan recently
and seems to be the earliest to approve.
It is a diversion of a drug that was developed as an anti-Ebola virus drug.
According to the report,
"It was shown that the recovery will be accelerated by 31%",
but personally I would like to expect a more dramatic effect ...
②「Favipiravir (Japanese name : Avigan)」
It is a diversion of an anti-influenza virus drug developed by a Japanese company
called Fujifilm Toyama Kagaku under the development name "Favipiravir".
There is also data that 90% of mildly ill and 60% of severely ill have improved.
However, it cannot be used for pregnant women
because it may cause malformations in the fetus.
Other than that, a total of about 10 or so drug names are listed on each website,
but it seems that all have more serious side effects (such as causing arrhythmia)
or have no effect, so these two are The best of the current situation. .
Also, it should be remembered that
above-mentioned therapeutic agents have the effect of "preventing the virus from multiplying in the body," and that patients with severe disease = patients after the virus has propagated cannot be expected to be effective.
Therefore, it seems that the development of therapeutic drugs is still in progress.
It seems that various internal organs will be affected if the condition becomes more severe, so I would like to prioritize a therapeutic drug that is effective for severely ill patients and a drug that pregnant women can take with peace of mind.
Next is that,
This is the most inportant and the fundamental solution,
and it's the key that how quickly can we finish the current situation of
the world affected by this new coronavirus (COVID-19)
and return to "daily life."
Vaccine is in this order,
②Clinical trial (*It will be divided into three stages. Every few months)
③Get approval from the country
and It is said that it usually take 5 to 15 years.
However, due to the world's emergencies, (1) originally took 2-3 years,
but it has been shortened to a few months as a result of global cooperation of experts,
and now about 10 clinical trials have already been conducted.
However, when I looked it up,
any web site / vaccine candidate I was looking for,
are saying "during the time between 2021",
so I wondered, "Will it take another year?" .
But It's too sad,
so as you can have expectations and hopes,
here are a couple of candidates that it seems the fastest.
(1)Vaccine developed by Oxford University, England
Clinical trials have already started on April 23!
The UK government is also supporting,
"If clinical trials go well,
we can start large-scale production of vaccines
in September as early as possible!"
(2)German pharmaceutical company Biontech and American pharmaceutical company Pfizer cooperate jointly develop
This is also starting clinical trials in Germany from April 23!
It will start in the week of May 4th in the US.
There is a possibility of supplying millions of vaccines within the year!
These two seem to be the fastest in my research.
I wonder if it will take until autumn ...,
but I'd like to wait in anticipation if the situation that tightens my heart is over.
One last thing,
COVID-19 vaccine, vaccination within the year is also the view
of international groups
[New York affairs] The International Association
for Infectious Disease Epidemic Control Innovation (CEPI),
which supports vaccine development, said on the 27th
that a new coronavirus vaccine (COVID-19) may be available within the year.
Bloomberg News Agency reported.
CEPI has invested in 9 new corona vaccine (COVID-19) development projects.
Based on the progress of development, medical workers explained
that there is a possibility of emergency use within the year,
targeting those at high risk of infection.
CEPI has previously said
that it will take 12 to 18 months before vaccination becomes possible.
I tried to summarize it like this, but it was difficult and long.
But since I started to my blog, about this medicine and vaccine,
I wanted to share it properly with everyone,
so we wanted to spend it every day with hope, so I tried my best to write it.
I would be very happy if you could read up to here if possible ...
Thank you for your reading!
* This is based on the information I checked on May 1.
When you read this, I hope that more research will be done.
↓There are many pages that I referred to this time ...lol